December 17th, 2009 | Climate Change
Three Degrees
Three degrees of warming will bring us to the climate last known in the Pliocene era three million years ago. Life goes on, but not as we know it.
Warmer water in the Indian Ocean means rain falls uselessly on the sea instead of the land. In the tropics, major floods become commonplace, whilst Botswana, in the South, becomes uninhabitable. The Amazon dries up (it did for a short time in 2005). Indonesia, Malaysia and Amazonia, regions that are based on a massive layer of damp peat, dry out and become a major fire hazard.
80% of the sea ice in the Arctic will have disappeared; sea levels rise by about a foot - not a lot, but enough to render New York, London and the Netherlands vulnerable to major flooding.
Glaciers all over the world melt too fast and then disappear; the Indus river flows peak in 2030, halve by 2080 and by 2090 reduce to nothing. In Pakistan, tens of millions of people, facing starvation, try to move home.
Existing major sources of food in the USA and other sub-tropical areas are threatened by drought, but in more northerly and southerly regions crop production will increase. People in the formerly fertile areas will try to follow the food. Attempted migration to the newly productive regions will not be a welcome phenomenon and tensions will rise.
The UK tends to be protected from extremes because it is surrounded by water. Temperature rises less than elsewhere in the world, but the weather becomes less predictable and more changeable.
This is not a nice situation to be in…
